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20121001
20121009
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CNBC
Oct 8, 2012 9:00am EDT
're in the expansion camp, you want financials, energy, materials. in the contraction camp, you're generally on the defensive side. the trade everybody's been talking about, jim you alluded to it, it's to play the u.s. market, play autos, housing, consumer staples. i call it the home depot trade. it's been a monster. that's the classic trade to play in these circumstances. i have a couple of problems with this. number one, cyclicals have outperformed defensive names in the last couple of months since this has been a very popular notion out there. since june overall, earnings and stocks have been somewhat negatively correlated. we've seen earnings come down and yet the stock markets continue to move up. in the last few weeks, really hold right near its highs. you can argue and there is certainly truth to that that that's because we have q.e. 3, because we've got the ecb in the market. but i look at the facts of where the market is, not necessarily what's been moving it every minute. that's what i see right now. today, the european bailout fund is coming into effect. if spain keeps going along
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